In Reply to: "They ain't even recruit me, dog" - Baron Davis on how Magic John posted by mh on November 01, 2024 at 10:55:36
1. A preseason AP Top 12 team misses the Tournament. This sounds insane and ridiculous. And yet: 26 times from 1985 through 2024, or roughly two every three years, this has happened. It didn’t last year, but #13 Miami and #14 Arkansas both missed the eventual Tournament by a mile. A scenario in which any of, say, North Carolina, Arizona, Auburn, or Tennessee miss the Tournament sounds bonkers. And yet: it’s slightly more likely (51% vs. 49%, historically) that one of these 12 misses the Tournament than it is all 12 get in. Even last year, a year in which all 12 got in, teams like Michigan State (9 seed) and FAU (8 seed) heavily underperformed. Someone’s not gonna cut it.
2. At least one team who hasn’t made the tournament this century gets in. Teams are only cursed until they’re not. My picks: Toledo, 1980 and Louisiana Tech, 1991.
3. A player scores 50 points in regulation for the first time since 2019. I am surprised this hasn’t happened yet. Last year produced the best year for offensive efficiency on record and the highest PPG we’ve seen since 2017-18. We’re overdue for someone to have a scoring explosion that makes headlines.
4. Bucking the trend, AP #21 this year makes the Tournament. This is a bizarre but true fact: over the last 39 Tournaments, the preseason #21 team in the AP Poll has made just 21 of them. No other ranking in the poll is even close, as even #24 is 27-for-39. Florida gets in this year.
5. Most successful first-year coach: Dusty May at Michigan. I’m a big believer in Dusty as a coach, but this is also an unusual mix of extremely old and extremely talented roster with a clear top-end star in Vlad Goldin and a lot of plus role players. I’m into it.
6. Coach with hardest first year: Steve Lutz at Oklahoma State. I picked Ed Cooley for this last year and it’s a similar feeling: I like Lutz, just like I like Cooley, but he’s entering a brutal Year Zero job with a bottom-four roster in a loaded Big 12. I think he’s good but this could be a team that goes 4-16 or 5-15 against a nasty conference schedule.
7. A program that’s never finished top 10 in KenPom does it this year. The easy pick here is Creighton, whose previous high finish is 11th, but other good shots at this include Xavier (12th, 1998), Miami (13th, 2013), or potentially Arkansas (2022).
8. Kentucky fails to make a ninth-straight Final Four, prolonging the second-longest streak in program history. This is not a statement against Kentucky but more playing the odds in my favor: even if you think of them as a top-15 team, the 15th-best team in March generally has about 9% odds to get to the Final Four. I’ll bet against it until it happens.
9. The national leader in made threes is Gabe Dorsey at William & Mary. Easy pick here. Dorsey is one of 11 players to have hit 100+ threes in 2023-24 that’s back for 2024-25, and instead of the moribund offense he’s used to, Brian Earl’s Cornell offense he’s bringing over should get him even more looks than usual. I’ll set his over/under at 112.5 made threes.
10. The two hardest-to-figure-out teams of the season are Kansas State and Arkansas. On any given night I think it’s realistic these guys could beat an Alabama by 15 and lose to a Samford by 20. Anything, at any time, is on the table. I could see Kansas State finishing anywhere from, like, 17th to 92nd in KenPom. Arkansas’s range is probably a little shorter but not by much.
11. NCAAW: South Carolina loses…TWICE. Same team, for the most part, that went undefeated last year. This is a nuts prediction! But this is also a nuts schedule: Dawn Staley has all of Michigan, NC State, UCLA, Iowa State, Duke, TCU, and UConn…and that’s before getting to an SEC that projects to have three other top-15 teams in Texas, LSU, and Oklahoma. That’s a lot for any team to handle, even the very best.
12. NCAAW: FGCU loses just one game in the regular season and goes undefeated in conference play. On the other end of the spectrum is Florida Gulf Coast, a top-40 or 50 team with one of the least-challenging schedules in the country. FGCU projects as a favorite in every single game, and only the first two - Davidson and Columbia - are within six points. Going 32-1 or something may only earn them a 6 or 7 seed, but it would still be pretty great.
13. In year one of SEC play, Texas and Oklahoma combine for a sub-.500 record in conference games. Oklahoma is self-explanatory, as they have somewhere around the 9th-14th best roster in an extremely deep league with a coach that’s kind of on the hot seat. Texas, though, has a top-5 or 6 roster with arguably a bottom-5 or 6 coach. I’ll set the O/U here at 16.5 combined conference wins.
14. A team outside of the preseason KenPom top 100 makes the NCAA Tournament as an at-large, that team being Saint Louis. This has now happened six seasons in a row, so I’ll predict it until it stops happening. I’m taking Saint Louis here because they match a very loose set of criteria: member of a league that isn’t in the P5 but is good, has a baseline of competency in recent past, and has a plus head coach. My other possible picks here were McNeese and DePaul, but McNeese’s schedule is horrific and DePaul felt a little far-fetched.
15. A team ranked 50th or lower in KenPom preseason ends up top 20 nationally, that team being Notre Dame. I don’t know that I actually am all in on this take, but they line up bizarrely well with Shrewsberry’s Year Two Penn State team, though that one didn’t get to the top 20. Also considered: Northwestern, McNeese.
16. Chris Beard misses the Tournament. Rodney Terry makes it. Again, the odds of this scenario actually coming to fruition is probably somewhere around 35%, but it’s so tantalizing that I had to write it down.
17. One of Kentucky/Arkansas misses the NCAA Tournament. Let’s cook. There are two ways about this: taking both UK and Arkansas at their AP rating and taking the two at their metrics rating (some combination of Torvik/KenPom/etc.). The AP ranks come out to about a 71% shot both get in. Their metrics averages, which place UK roughly 26th and Arkansas 25th, put this more around 63%. While most have this at a 0-5% chance of happening, the actual truth is it happens in roughly one of every three simulations. This is worth the shot in the dark.
18. At least two of Kansas, Alabama, and UConn fail to make the 2025 Elite Eight. Same logic as #1 here to an extent. While it sounds a little nuts as of today that any of these three wouldn’t be among the last eight standing, only twice in the last 12 years have even two of the preseason top three managed to get to the Elite Eight. Not since 2008 have all three done it. On average, one of them makes it, while the other two peter out in the Sweet Sixteen or Round of 32. Again: sounds nuts, but history’s in your favor here.
19. Duke is the #1 overall seed thanks to Big 12 vote-splitting. This is a hedge of sorts but it’s the same thing that led me to Purdue last year. I don’t think Duke will come out this season as the consensus best team - that’s why I have Houston #1 - but because the top of the Big 12 is much harder to sweep than the top of the ACC, I think some amount of process of elimination will lead people to Duke, who wins 28 or 29 games and is Duke.
20. Mike Woodson gets Indiana to the NCAA Tournament…as an 8 seed. Indiana fans are all in after beating Tennessee in an exhibition. I get it! I truly do. But: those shooting splits were nasty, and Tennessee missed an awful lot of open shots. I just cannot get behind this roster construction and think placing them 17th in the AP might be scraping the absolute top of what they can do. It’s more likely Woodson’s aversion to analytics of any kind costs them spots.
21. NCAAW: 2024-25 Tennessee WBB = a version of 2005-06 Tennessee MBB. Recall that Bruce Pearl was largely unknown prior to a breakout year at Milwaukee, played an exciting system with high-tempo offense and a full-court press defense, and used that to catch the SEC off-guard. Now look at Kim Caldwell’s resume/system and tell me I’m not totally insane! Though I think this is more of a 4 seed than a 2 seed.
22. NCAAW: Iowa will be fine. People really want this project to go downhill post-Caitlin and post-Lisa Bluder, but Jan Jensen should have a steady hand in her first year and plucking Lucy Olsen from Villanova was a tremendous move. You can’t fully replace Caitlin but Olsen at least comes somewhat close and will play the same role. 6 seed, Round of 32.
23. NCAAW: Paige Bueckers is National Player of the Year, but the surprise second-place finisher is Ayoka Lee of Kansas State. Bueckers’ case is obvious: she’s the best returning player in college basketball and a senior. Lee’s is less obvious. If you weren’t paying attention last year, she was putting together a monstrous season - 19.7 PPG, 8.6 RPG, 2.8 BPG, and a +17 BPM - prior to a midseason injury that knocked her out of NPOY contention. A real case can be made that she’s the second-most impactful player in the sport right now.
24. The national leading scorer for MBB is Robert McCray V at Jacksonville. There’s no obvious person to pick here, but McCray is as good a guess as any: a 114 ORtg on 30% USG last year as the main ball-handler and a former Power Five recruit playing for a mid-level ASun team that has no other good scoring options. He posted 18.4 PPG last year and might touch 23-24 this year.
25. We get a new AP #1 on November 18 after Kansas loses to Michigan State on a neutral court on the 12th in controversial fashion. I know nothing here, but just a guess. Some sort of combination of Hunter Dickinson ill-timed foul/awful missed foul the other way that causes a stir?
26. Multiple times, AP #1 loses to an unranked opponent and people are somehow surprised. This has happened 24 times in last 10 seasons, and every time it occurs, people act like it is the most shocking thing to happen in world history. It’s fairly normal! When AP #1 Duke loses at Wake Forest or something, it’s not like AP #1 Duke losing to Stephen F. Austin. Or whatever they were ranked, who knows.
27. We get an opening week upset where the winner had a 2% or lower chance of winning pregame. Surprisingly, this has happened in three of the last six seasons. I won’t even attempt to guess what this is but just know you read it first here when it happens.
28. Iowa State is this year’s Average Twitter Dork’s Most Hated Team because of their elite defense and just-okay offense. Free space on the board. I’ve noticed that the average CBB fan and media member is far more forgiving towards those with great offenses and bad defenses versus the opposite, even though there’s no data suggesting that either is really better than the other.
29. There is no Dalton Knecht 2.0 this season, but Saint Thomas of USC comes closest. I think that searching for a copy of a player is a fool’s errand and it’s clearly just meant to drive cheap heat to a podcast or media outlet. Then again, I’m not above it. In 2022-23, Knecht made 50 or more shots at the rim/midrange/from three and posted a 110 ORtg on usage above 25%. Only two other guys in this transfer class did the same: Tyren Moore, moving up to UAB, and Thomas, who moves from Northern Colorado to USC. Lightning might strike twice, who knows.
30. A team shoots over 50% from three in November. This has happened just twice in the last seven seasons but it feels like we’re overdue for someone to get blinding hot from deep. Just be prepared to bet against this team the rest of the way if it does happen. My best guess here is High Point.
31. NCAAW: Tennessee picks off one of their Big Five: LSU (2x), Texas, South Carolina, or UConn. At some point this year, Kim Caldwell will get her first signature win in orange by beating one of these preseason top-7 teams. LSU is the most vulnerable but UConn’s an odd midseason home game that kicks off a nasty five road games in 16 day stretch for the Huskies.
32. NCAAW: The Big 12 once again gets a shock champion in TCU. Last year it was Oklahoma, who was preseason #5 in the Big 12 and ended up winning the conference. This year, I like TCU, who brings back Sedona Prince (a legitimate top-10 player in the nation) for her final season with a deep roster that’s somehow fifth in the media poll.
33. NCAAW: One of the new interlopers, UCLA or USC, wins the Big Ten. This is much less of a surprise, as I think these two are pretty clearly the best rosters in the conference, but who wins the regular season likely depends on who wins the two games between them on February 13 and March 1.
34. We get a Final Four first-timer. This happens reasonably often but everyone’s always floored when it happens. Best shots here: Tennessee, Xavier, Creighton, or Iowa State, who DID make a Final Four…in 1942.
35. The #1 offense this year is NOT Alabama, but rather Gonzaga. I think Alabama may have gotten all they can get last year in terms of offensive efficiency, when they had one of the seven best seasons in KenPom’s 28-year history. I don’t know if they can one-up that. I do think Gonzaga can with a ruthless mix of 2PT and 3PT efficiency, along with a less horrifying schedule to deal with.
36. This is Tom Izzo’s final season. I don’t report, so don’t take it as a report to aggregate, but I was taken aback while watching the Michigan State/Northern Michigan exhibition at how…reflective? Izzo was. It was a mood that I’m not sure I’ve ever seen him in before. He seems pretty happy with his legacy and comfortable with going out whenever he’s got to go out. I can’t imagine he loves dealing with NIL, the portal, etc. after decades of doing it a completely different way. I’d lock this in if they can make the Sweet Sixteen.
37. A shock resignation that *isn’t* Tom Izzo happens halfway through the season. Tony Bennett’s was in October, which is stunning enough, but this feels like the year where a coach cites ‘burnout’ and/or The New Way of Doing Things to get out from a disappointing season in an attempt to give a favored assistant a shot. I’m not really sure who this would be, which is sort of the point of the prediction. No one would’ve guessed Bo Ryan randomly calling it quits!
38. A team’s season is derailed when a key player is suspended for gambling on their own games. Welcome to the Bad Vibes section of the predictions. Temple nearly had their season ended early last year by gambling suspicions, which fell by the wayside after a shock AAC title game run. Well, wayside until recently, when Hysier Miller was forced to leave Virginia Tech and rumors are buzzing about the staff being in serious jeopardy. Call me a doomer if you must but I don’t think this stuff is going to go away anytime soon. You can’t put the toothpaste back in the tube.
39. A player sits out multiple games over an NIL-related dispute, but comes back to the team before the end of the season. As a rule, this newsletter is very much pro-players getting paid and happy that players are getting the money coaching staffs and administrators have hogged for decades. But we already had a version of this story occur at UNLV during football season, and considering rumors I’ve heard from other writers/storytellers at respective schools they cover, I think this isn’t that crazy a prediction to make. The only difference will be if it’s a full walkaway or more like an NFL holdout where a player comes back after a couple of weeks once contract terms are worked out.
40. Duke sweeps their two games versus UNC but loses three ACC games elsewhere. Don’t know what to tell you, I think this particular edition of Duke matches up very well with UNC in a way that last year’s team simply didn’t. I can see it. I can also see a team largely led by younger guys losing focus at times and blowing games they shouldn’t to a Wake Forest or Clemson or SMU.
41. NCAAW: UConn/Notre Dame on December 12 AND UConn/South Carolina on February 16 produce higher TV ratings than any men’s regular season game. This is because the men’s game remains awful at promoting its top stars in the same way the women’s game has figured out. Part of this is the simple fact that there’s a clearer top class with top stars in the women’s game right now, but these games are standalones in their time slots on ESPN and ABC, respectively. When was the last time college basketball made a true marquee game between two top-four teams a standalone, featured affair on national TV that was meant to get ratings? Gonzaga/Duke three years ago?
42. NCAAW: After an extremely chalky 2024 Round of 64, the 2025 Round of 64 produces no fewer than four upsets (11 over 6 or greater). Last year featured one upset: MTSU over Louisville. In a Tournament that’s rapidly gaining more parity I don’t think that’ll happen two years in a row. Also!
43. NCAAW: A 14 seed upsets a 3 for the first time in modern Tournament history. It’s weird that this has never happened. A 16 has beaten a 1, seven 13s have beaten 4s, and once, a 15 beat a 2. But a 14 has never beaten a 3. This is added to my dartboard list of Every-Year Predictions Until They Happen.
44. NCAAW: Kansas State makes its first Elite Eight since 1982 (!). This has to happen. If they can’t get there with Ayoka Lee, I’m not sure it ever will.
45. A preseason top 9 team wins the NCAA Tournament (Kansas, Alabama, UConn, Houston, Iowa State, Gonzaga, Duke, Baylor, UNC). Weird number. But! This has happened in 21 of the last 27 seasons. Before games even begin, you can look at the top 9 teams in the AP Poll and have ~80% confidence that you’ve found your national champion.
46. Four non-P5s get multiple bids: WCC, American, Mountain West, and Atlantic 10. I hope it’s more than this, but everything else is heavily reliant on the top team having a great season and losing to a quality opponent in their conference tournament. Unlikely to count on it.
47. A 6 seed makes the Final Four…
48. …and a 14 seed makes the Sweet Sixteen. The first hasn’t happened in 30 years, which is just astonishing to me. We are long, long overdue for it to happen. The second hasn’t happened since 1997. Based on the last 22 years, which is all I have data for at the moment, we would have expected at least four 14 seeds to make the Sweet Sixteen. We’re at zero. Long, long overdue.
49. We get a truly wonky seed vs. seed matchup this year that never happens. My pick: 6 vs. 10 for the first time since 2005. Last year was disappointingly normal, though we did get the first 4 vs. 11 in Tournament history. I think we should get at least one bizarre one this March.
50. Your 2024-25 national champion is Houston, defeating Arizona…
51. NCAAW: …and your 2024-25 national champion is South Carolina for the second straight year, defeating UCLA in the final. I hate predictions like these because they’re dumb and never come out right, but I’m not above some clickbait. You know me.
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