In Reply to: Before we get into conference play, what are the expecatations? posted by Cachorro on December 03, 2024 at 08:59:16
some movement, hopefully upward, but not much because, historically, that's just the way it's been.
Cronin's first UCLA team improved the most, from #114 at the beginning of December to #77 at the beginning of March (before the season was cancelled).
The 2021 and 2022 teams hardly moved their ratings at all between December and March (#40 to #42 and then #8 to #8, respectively).
The 2023 team went from #11 to #2 and would probably have competed for the championship without the injuries (yes, I'm still bitter).
Last year's team, of course, fell off a cliff (mostly because they were overrated to begin with).
More importantly, the B1G is just STACKED this season. The top six teams in terms of net efficiency margin are all within one basket of each other. The top ten teams are all with two possessions. Luck, or who's hot on any given night, is going to play a "B1G" role in the results.
If UCLA can manage a 14-6 conference record, which traph suggested as a high water mark, they'll most likely win the regular season title. That's not my expectation but I do expect the Bruins to compete for the title.
Everyone has played a similar schedule of cupcakes. Some teams, like Oregon, have already played some top-tier schools (and UCLA will also in the coming weeks). But we can draw some meaningful conclusions from the stats.
No one in the B1G has a better defense right now than UCLA. Only Michigan comes close, and it's not that close.
OTOH, UCLA is tenth in offensive efficiency right now. We can hope they improve, but it's just as likely they are what they are.
And what they probably are, at least today, before they play Washington, and then Oregon on Sunday, is a legitimate 4-seed that should make the Sweet-16 and have an realistic chance to beat someone like Gonzaga or Houston to make the Elite-8.