IMO, it's just the market finding its stasis


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Posted by TheHappyBurgermeister on April 12, 2026 at 12:13:22

In Reply to: 'This Has Become a Joke,' CBB Coach Slams Transfer Portal Players posted by mh on April 12, 2026 at 09:58:02

Schools are going to have to fine what level they want to be a player at. If tons of schools think they are going to legitimately contend for an NC, then you're going to have like 72 players that are getting a ton of money (6 player/team, 12 teams). After that, it seems to me like one guy is about as good as the next. Is there a big difference between the 73rd guy and the 103rd guy? Or 152nd guy? I doubt it.

For me, I don't think we had a legit chance to win an NC this past year, even if everyone stayed healthy. Why'd we spend so much money on Dent? We could have picked up another good PG and done about as well - even if he'd stayed healthy. With Dent, we were probably an E8 team. With another good PG, we're a 9/10 seed?

Either decide you're going for the Chip and go all in, blow a bunch of money. Or, be smart, wait for the prices to come down.

I'd get the best HS players I could get, understanding that the McDonalds AA are going to have bidding wars. I'd get guys that were willing to sign 2 year NIL deals. The pitch to the kid is, this shows I'm investing in you. I'm not going to chase "New P" (Chris Rock fans know), for the sake of New P. Find the kids that want to be developed, want a UCLA education. Develop them. If another school comes around and wants to poach them, you can decide whether they are worth what the other school will pay them, and if not, you get your buyout, to bring in other kids. You're not high and dry.

Imo, schools will eventually decide they don't have enough money to compete in the "buy your way to a national championship" sweepstakes*

It's irrational for more than like, 10-12 schools to think they have the money to do that. Schools will eventually back off trying to max their spending to compete with the second tier spenders, in the hope that buying second tier players will win them an NC. And, imo, the difference between second tier and 3rd tier is not that big.

Imo, it will shake out, so that the top guys continue to make bank. But, the next level will drop off.


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