In Reply to: Here's the advantage I see to deferring. posted by mh on November 18, 2024 at 10:25:00
Every positive you can posit there is a negative scensrio as well. If you take the ball instead of deferring, you actually know what you are going to run because the first 15 or so plays are scripted. If you defer, you could be dealing with multiple injuries which will materially alter your game plan. Plus, your assertion about knowing the defense is not really accurate. Teams make adjustments at halftime.
The data says there is no material difference in a vaccuum. The edge comes IF you can pull a Belicheck — score at the end of the 1st and double up on the first possession of the second half. If that’s the outcome the decision to defer is beneficial.