recession, and perhaps depression, it will be a source of morbid fascination and a source of schadenfreude to see which groups start moving away from Trump in what order. Commonsense suggests that people who joined Trump's idiocratic front after the 2024 election will be the first to leave (last in, first out), followed by old school Republicans and Wall Street conservatives. I am guessing evangelicals will be the last. Which leaves three distinct groups: the nazis, the working class MAGA, and the manosphere type.
Here's my wild guess:
late comers after 2024 (the bandwagoners)
> traditional, free market Republicans (the capitalists)
> the manosphere (incels, man's grievance groups, tech-bros, etc)
> the nazis
> MAGA working class (being low information voters, they'll take their sweet time putting two and two togeether)
> right wing evangelicals who believe Trump is god's lifeboat to save oppressed white christians).
As a side note, I don't expect this process to start soon, but that could be another thing to watch out: when do these groups finally break with Trump. At the moment, I'm expecting the first group to move away before the end of the year, or maybe early '26.
And the last group will hold on for years (think about those isolated Japanese soldiers in the Pacific islands long after WWII had ended).