Forget the stock market. Keep an eye on bonds.


[ Follow Ups ] [ Post Follow Up ] [ UCLA Open Forum ]

Posted by mh on April 09, 2025 at 10:03:18

Someone is dumping a lot of US Treasuries. China is almost certainly doing it, and other countries are doing it as well.

The result is to drive interest rates up and reduce liquidity in the market. The US needs to see a LOT of bonds, notes, etc to keep functioning. If there are fewer major players to buy that debt, we will have to offer higer interest rates to sell the debt.

That means the cost of servicing our debt will go up a lot. All of this at a time when Congess is considering a budget-busting huge tax cut for the risk.

Meanwhile a recession will decrease income tax revenues.

The consequences of a trade war reach far beyond trade and the stock market.


Follow Ups:



Post a Followup

Name:
Email:
Password:

Subject:

Comments:

Optional Link URL:
Link Title:
Optional Image URL:


[ Follow Ups ] [ Post Follow Up ] [ UCLA Open Forum ]