In Reply to: (link) Is Bone-Spurs about to cave? posted by SagoBob on August 10, 2025 at 08:15:40
Ukraine is no longer relying on U.S. support. While American aid is still welcome, Ukraine is now securing more assistance from other countries.
As its military-industrial base grows, nations like Japan and South Korea can contribute simply by providing funds.
After the war, the countries that stood by Ukraine—such as Turkey, France, Czech Republic, South Korea (who is providing replacement arms for the EU), and Ukraine itself—will likely emerge with more cost-effective war-tested military technology.
Meanwhile, Russia has adapted by jamming some of the U.S.’s more expensive precision systems, like HIMARS and certain artillery, limiting them to strikes near the front lines.
Russia is just about out of its pre-war storage of tanks. We are seeing a dwindling number of their infantry fighting vehicles.
Ukraine has to win this war economically. The first sign we’ve seen is that Putin has announced they will spend less on the war next year. Russia’s GDP growth is down to 1%–1.5%.
Roughly half of their National Wealth Fund, which is used to stabilize the country and pay for the war, is gone. Only around $60 billion is left. As the war continues, it gets more expensive.
It costs more to build a tank than to refurbish one.
It costs more to stabilize the economy.
It costs more to entice people to join the army.
It costs more to borrow at 20+% interest.
It costs more to buy equipment at 20+% inflation.
Russia has nearly exhausted its stock of tanks held in storage. We are seeing a decline in the number of infantry fighting vehicles on the front.
Its illegal oil tankers are increasingly being found with damaged rudders or engine rooms, causing months-long delays when docked in foreign ports.
Ukraine is also ignoring previous U.S. requests to stop attacking energy infrastructure, train junctions, deep-strike targets, and air travel. Daily, they either hack into flight systems’ databases or fly drones close enough to airports to ground all air traffic.
When the U.S. is a bad partner, it doesn’t get to set the terms.