Pokrovsk was expected to fall last winter, but it had been a shiny beacon for Russians to throw armor and infantry at for a year.
There is a narrow gap of a few km for Ukrainian soldiers to try and escape through, but with drones, it's a death march. They can't even use vehicles to get people out because it would attract drone attention.
The pocket is closing with hundreds of soldiers left in the city.
In the past, Ukrainians would load up trucks and armor and sprint out of these pockets, driving through artillery barrages, but with drones, that's a suicide mission.
The extra year gave Ukraine time to create defenses behind Pokrovsk. A Russian breakthrough last year would have been catastrophic because it was wide open afterward.
Yesterday, helicopters dropped off special forces to try and widen the gap to no avail. I'm guessing Ukraine is either trying to get people out by walking in groups of 2 or 3 men or is waiting for a bad weather day when drones have a harder time.
In sum total Russia lost many tens of thousands of men and a ton of armor more than Ukraine, but the fall of Pokrovsk is going to be a blood bath of hundreds of Ukrainians imo.
Under the current commander-in-chief Syrskyi, Ukraine always retreats too late. Talking to a person who analyzes the war for his work, the former commander in chief Zaluzhnyi, who is now the English Ambassador, was just a much smarter commander, but he clashed with Zelenskyy in Ukraine, needing a mobilization of 500,000 men, and he was much more apt to leave a lost cause like Bahkmut to save men.
He understood earlier than everyone else that this war was a stalemate and should be fought as a stalemate. Zelenskyy was trying to get training, armor, fighters, etc, from the allies who would provide them with the lure that a spring offensive (which failed spectacularly but was quickly ended) could end the war.
Both were right. Zelenskyy got more from allies immediately for the spring offensive. Zaluzhnyi was right that the war was a stalemate and the key was to save men. Ukraine is falling 10,000 men short every month in its recruiting targets. They still don't draft men under 25 so there are men available.
More troublesome is that Kostiantynivka will likely fall too. Part of it is in Russian hands. It was taken in the thunder run Ukraine used to take back a huge swath of Donetsk. It was the last major city that kept Russians on the opposite side of a huge river. When that city falls to Russia, Russia will have a bridgehead that has kept them on the other side of the river for 2 years.
Russia also has a manpower problem. They can't meet their recruiting targets by giving bonuses. They are calling up their reservists in theory for no frontline roles, but once they are in, they will beat them until they sign a contract that allows Russia to send them to the front lines.