The ''Ferguson Law''


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Posted by SagoBob on November 19, 2025 at 15:37:11

I was watching an interview where this was being discussed and thought I would do a casual net search. This is what I came up with.

From AI: "The "Ferguson rule" in economics is Niall Ferguson's Law, which states that a great power is at risk of geopolitical decline when its spending on debt service exceeds its spending on defense. This fiscal imbalance is seen as a precursor to decline because it diverts resources away from the military, making the nation more vulnerable. The law has been applied historically to powers like Habsburg Spain and the British Empire, and Niall Ferguson has suggested it may apply to the modern-day United States".

And according to Working Papers from the Hoover Institution the United States began violating Ferguson’s Law for the first time in nearly a century in 2024.

So it appears that some time ago we've already done that. As we've done it again in 2024, are we feelin' lucky?

Moving on, Trump has hinted at a sending $2K "dividend checks" to some taxpayers, with the money coming from the tariff windfalls, the legality of which will be decided by the courts. What if we had to issue refunds?

When making promises, Trump is like Charlie, Lucy and the football. And we know how that turns out. So to all your MAGGOTS out there, don't get your hopes up (again)!


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