In Reply to: Does the US invasion of Venezuela... posted by Gainsborough on January 03, 2026 at 08:37:46
I heard this argument from Sarah Paine, a professor of grand strategy and history at the U.S. Naval War College.
One of the most common—and costly—mistakes great powers make is misidentifying their true strategic enemy.
Ukraine was never an existential threat to Russia. China, by contrast, has roughly nine times Russia’s population and nine times its GDP. It also holds overwhelming long-term leverage over Russia. China lacks sufficient fresh water in key regions, in part because Russia absorbed control of a major lake system decades ago, yet today Russia’s military and economy have become increasingly dependent on China. If China were to expand pressure northward, Russia would have little ability to resist.
At the same time, China faces its own strategic dilemma. If it were to move militarily against Taiwan, it would almost certainly forfeit its trillion-dollar annual export surplus—the foundation of its economic model and domestic stability.
For decades, the Chinese Communist Party justified its rule through a combination of moral authority, rising prosperity, and nationalism. But widening inequality and slowing growth have eroded the credibility of its moral and economic promises. What remains is nationalism—the same final pillar Vladimir Putin leaned on as his legitimacy weakened, a dynamic that helps explain Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
That parallel matters. We should take Xi Jinping seriously when he signals an intention to move against Taiwan. Like Putin, he may see external conflict not as a choice, but as a necessity—and Taiwan, not Ukraine, is China’s true target.
Xi better strategic move would be to attack Russia.