This week, a new Fox News poll showed Democrats hitting the highest percent support on the generic ballot in the history of the survey, winning 52% of the vote vs 46% for the Republicans. This puts them firmly in “wave” territory for November: Per Fox, “The current 52% Democratic support is the highest recorded for either party; the previous high was 50% for the Democrats in October 2017.”
(A note on the Fox poll: despite the network’s reputation, the survey is conducted by a bipartisan duo — Beacon Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R).)
Aside from the large lead for the Democrats (+6 is above average), the Fox News Poll found some striking shifts in issue ownership. Fox finds the Democrats lead on affordability (+14), helping the middle class (+14), and healthcare (+21), while Republicans hold advantages on border security (+15), national security (+12), and immigration (+5) — but their previous edges on taxes, foreign policy, and the deficit have evaporated. Those issues are now essentially tied.
Compared to 2023, the last time Fox asked these questions before Trump became president, support for the GOP is down on immigration by 5 points (10 points since 2022), national security by 8, government spending by 11, foreign policy by 12, taxes by 12, and affordability/prices by 26:
Meanwhile, Trump’s standing with independents continues to deteriorate. The Economist/YouGov poll conducted Jan. 23-26 found Trump at -18 net approval overall but -40 among independents. That’s a new record low across both his first and second terms.
