In Reply to: Do sanctions work? posted by mh on February 17, 2026 at 13:33:47
Sanctions played a role in the timing of the Japanese attack, but not the overall arc of Japanese ambitions and strategic aims in the Western Pacific. Because of the US oil embargo in response to the occupation of what was then French Indochina, Japan accelerated its timelines to speed up capture of oil reserves in Indonesia, which in turn required occupation of the US Philippines to secure the supply route. But these were steps Japan already intended to take at a time of their choosing, to advance its imperial interests in Asia. The attack on Pearl Harbor was a late development in Japan's existing war plans, inspired by England's carrier attack on Taranto the preceding year.
FDR did not want to go to war with Japan. His focus was always on Germany. Prior to the Japanese attack on Oahu, the Philippines and other US possessions, Churchill and FDR desperately hoped to that Japan would stay out of the war so that resources could be dedicated to the defeat of Germany.
Conspiracy theorist have pushed a theory that FDR wanted Japan to attack as means of entering the war against Nazi Germany, but this theory is deeply flawed.
Germany was not obligated to go to war if Japan attacked another country; the Axis pact required active military assistance only if one of the signators was attacked by a third country. The US did not declare war on Germany until December 11, and then only after Germany declared war on the US and commenced unrestricted submarine warfare on US vessels.