In Reply to: Do sanctions work? posted by mh on February 17, 2026 at 13:33:47
> Our sanctions on Russia haven't changed their course in the Ukraine war. It may have hurt their ability to prosecute the war a little.
That’s incorrect. Sanctions have materially constrained Russia’s ability to finance and sustain the war. As oil markets tighten and enforcement expands, even countries like India face pressure around Russian crude purchases. Coordinated actions by NATO, the U.S., and partners targeting shipping, insurance, and financial channels have raised costs and reduced efficiency.
Sanctions haven’t ended the war, but they’ve degraded Russia’s capacity over time: equipment is harder to replace, access to advanced components is restricted, inflation and stagnation are real, and revenue streams are less reliable. Ukraine has consistently argued that sustained economic pressure is central to its path forward. That’s not symbolic, it’s strategic. This is the first time, Russia can no longer replace all of the soldiers that have been eliminated.
> It appears that US sanctions on Japan played a major role in Japan's decision to attack Pearl Harbor. Depending on you beliefs about Roosevelt, this may or may not have been the outcome he was hoping for.
The oil embargo under Franklin D. Roosevelt did shape Japan’s decision-making. But the alternative was continuing to supply roughly 80% of Japan’s oil while it expanded its invasion of the Pacific.
Without sanctions, Japan’s campaign likely would have continued with fewer constraints. Instead, Japan chose escalation, culminating in the attack on Pearl Harbor. Oil shortages later became one of the reasons Japan ultimately lost. Sanctions didn’t cause aggression; they responded to it.
> Long-term sanctions on Iran haven't led to regime change.
Regime change isn’t the only measure of success. Sanctions on Iran aim to limit resources available for nuclear development, missile programs, and regional proxies. Reducing revenue, restricting technology access, and raising the cost of destabilizing activity are strategic objectives in themselves.
Sanctions are tools to constrain and pressure — not guaranteed regime-change mechanisms.