In Reply to: Re: DOW futures > -850; Oil >$100 barrell..... posted by russsmith on March 08, 2026 at 20:30:57
I’m not sure where people are getting the idea that the markets are being “slaughtered.”
Approximate moves since the strike (late Feb–early Mar 2026):
S&P 500: about −1% to −2% initially after the strike
Nasdaq Composite: about −1% early reaction
Dow Jones Industrial Average: roughly −0.8% at the start of the sell-off
Those are small moves in the context of normal market volatility.
Compare that with past wars:
War Initial market reaction
Korean War ~−5% in a day, roughly −10–12% short-term
Vietnam War About −1–2% initial drop
War in Afghanistan ~−10–14% drawdown (largely tied to the shock from September 11 attacks)
Iraq War ~+2% rally when the invasion began
Even in the cases with the largest drops, markets typically recovered within a few months.
In the short term, this situation may actually favor the U.S. relative to others because of energy independence. But over the long term, the bigger risks aren’t the immediate market reaction, they’re inflation, rising debt, geopolitical instability, and erosion of trust.
If Democrats are trying to use the markets as a political argument against Donald Trump over this, it’s probably not a strong one. Historically, U.S. markets have recovered quickly after the start of wars, and 1–2% swings happen all the time.
The more serious issues are structural: debt, inflation pressures, and the increased risk of terrorism or retaliation.
There’s also the geopolitical side, for example, the United Arab Emirates reportedly moving to buy a 30% stake in a major Ukrainian missile/drone manufacturer, which highlights how the defense sector and international capital are already repositioning around the conflict involving Ukraine and the Arab state independent of the US/NATO.