In Reply to: There looks to be a 10% difference in the betting posted by confused442 on March 17, 2026 at 19:23:48
Well run polls take a random sample from a properly stratified population.
The questions in polls vs betting are different. One asks who you want to win, the other who you think will win.
Those who bet are not a random sample. They tend to have certain demographic characteristics, mainly being male.
Yet some studies have shown the betting markets are more accurate. Guess we'll find out in November.