With oil prices surging, Ukraine has shifted strategy—moving away from missile and munitions targets and instead focusing on Russia’s export infrastructure. A week-long drone campaign targeting ports near St. Petersburg has disrupted roughly 40% of Russian oil exports.
Ukraine has also begun striking the escort vessels Russia recently started deploying to protect its oil tankers, further increasing pressure on maritime operations.
Even pro-Kremlin voices on Russian state TV are starting to acknowledge a growing imbalance: Ukraine’s offensive drone and missile production is now outpacing Russia’s ability to produce defensive systems.
On the battlefield, Ukraine continues to gain ground overall. Last month alone, Russian losses were estimated between 35,000 and 39,000 soldiers—exceeding recruitment levels and pushing Russia further from its annual target of 500,000 troops.
A senior general was also killed in a transport plane crash, adding to mounting leadership losses.
Inside Russia, infrastructure strain is becoming more visible. Mobile internet disruptions persist across large areas, with some people reportedly traveling out of the country just to access reliable connectivity for work.
Meanwhile, Ukraine is reforming how it acquires military technology. Under a younger, tech-focused defense leadership team, procurement is shifting away from ad hoc purchases toward competitive selection and standardized systems—aimed at improving efficiency and effectiveness on the battlefield.