In Reply to: Cook Political shifts four Senate races toward Dem posted by mh on April 13, 2026 at 12:51:25
I linked Cook's senate summary below.
If we go by Cook's Report they Dems would be a long shot still to win the senate. They have to turn 4 red seats without losing any.
That means out of these 7 races they would have to win 6 of these 7 races. Pollings odds by Cooke's report are Dem/GOP
GA 60/40
NC 60/40
OH 60/40
ME 50/50
MI 50/50
OH 50/50
AK 40/60
By Cook report's rough numbers Dems win 5 or more of these 7 is 24%
If we go by Kalshi's numbers
TX 44/56
AK 60/40
ME 73/27
MI 78/22
OH 59/41
IA 39/61
NE 71/29
GA 85/15
NC 85/15
MN 80/20
Exactly 7 seats: ~30%
Exactly 8 seats: ~25%
Exactly 9 seats: ~10%
Sweep (10/10): ~2%
There are more states in play and the Dem states are less in jeopardy. The odds of the Dems winning 7 or more out of 10 seats is 67%.
That hasn't been priced into Kalshi yet. The odds of Dems winning senate is 51/49.
My guess is that Kalshi hasn't priced in a Dem's winning 9 or 10 out of 10.