In Reply to: You either missed or ignored his point posted by Dr.J on April 21, 2026 at 15:36:02
If we were looking at this months ago, then sure—but not recently.
His average still sits at 40.1%, even when including RCP.
When you see a lower poll, it usually points to one of two things:
There’s been a real shift, and that poll is an early signal that needs confirmation from others.
It’s an outlier—polling errors happen, and this could be one of them.
That’s exactly why averages matter. Focusing on just a few polls while ignoring others that show the opposite doesn’t give a reliable picture.
There’s not much more to simplify here. I’d prefer not to go back and forth on this—these are basic statistical principles, not a matter of opinion.