In Reply to: It doesn't matter which poll aggregator you use posted by mh on April 24, 2026 at 09:56:50
Polls aren’t nearly as precise as you’re treating them. His disapproval has been essentially flat for weeks—longer, depending on the aggregator.
RCP: 41.8 now vs. 40.5 on 3/21 (about a month ago)
Silver Bulletin: 43.9 now vs. 42.0 on 1/26 (about three months ago)
Those shifts are well within the margin of error.
If you take these numbers as exact, you end up with contradictions—like claiming he’s “more popular” now in one aggregator than he is “unpopular” in another. That’s obviously not a serious interpretation.
A 1–2 point movement is statistical noise, not a meaningful trend. Treating it as a real shift is the same kind of mistake people made when they overread small polling changes and drew confident conclusions—like assuming Harris would beat Trump.
Aggregates help smooth things out, but they still come with uncertainty.