Russia's territorial gains are coming at an unsustainable price. Over the past several months, every square kilometer seized has cost approximately 250+ Russian soldiers — well above the 200-per-km threshold their planners reportedly need to justify continued offensive operations. Meanwhile, Ukraine has driven the cost of killing a single Russian soldier down to just $85, a figure that underscores how efficiently Kyiv is prioritizing manpower attrition while Moscow focuses on destroying equipment. Ukraine is killing Russians above replacement levels.
The Middle Gets Deadly
For years, the 50-to-120-mile band behind the front line represented Russia's most comfortable operating space — a midrange blind spot Ukraine couldn't reliably reach. That window is closing. Ukraine is now systematically targeting the major road corridors out of Crimea and Mariupol, choking the supply arteries that feed Russian front-line operations. Communications infrastructure, command nodes, and air defense installations have all been added to the priority target list, eroding the command-and-control backbone Russia depends on.
Squeezing the Economy
Deeper inside Russian territory, the campaign against energy infrastructure has reached a new threshold. A quarter of Russia's oil refining capacity — along with significant gasoline and diesel production — has been knocked offline. With the low-hanging fruit of fuel infrastructure largely exhausted, Ukraine has shifted its rear-area focus toward semiconductor fabrication plants and chemical manufacturers, targeting the industrial base that sustains Russia's war economy.
The Parade, the Permission, and the Strike on Moscow
Ukraine agreed to a limited ceasefire tied to Russia's Victory Day parade, exchanging restraint for the release of 1,000 prisoners of war. When Zelensky publicly announced that he had "given Russia permission" to hold its parade, the statement infuriated the Kremlin — a deliberate provocation delivered with a smile. He followed it with a pointed observation: the dense concentration of air defense systems repositioned to shield Moscow during the parade had left the rest of the country exposed.
Russia moved quickly to redistribute those systems once the parade ended. Ukraine did the opposite, launching a mass strike on Moscow, destroying a semiconductor factory and a fuel refinery. For many Muscovites, it was the first time the war felt like it had come home.
Many who follow this war including the Economist feel as if the advantage is now with Ukraine. They have made around 28 relationships with war materials manufactoring outside of Ukraine.