In Reply to: An interesting article on the Ukraine War posted by mh on June 03, 2026 at 11:08:51
I think that view is overly optimistic.
What happens if Russia develops its own version of these long-range or mid-range drone systems and deploys them at scale?
And who, exactly, is supposed to withdraw? This is no longer a war where large formations are manning continuous trench lines. In many sectors, there may be only one or two Russian soldiers occupying a basement, treeline, or ruined building, with drones overhead ready to strike the moment they move. Some of these positions are dozens of kilometers ahead of their higher-level commanders.
Could Ukrainian forces continue to advance by clearing one basement, treeline, or strongpoint at a time? Possibly. But that assumes they can overcome extensive minefields, layered defensive positions, and Russia's own increasingly sophisticated drone network.
In my opinion, the character of the war has fundamentally changed. Rather than ending with a decisive breakthrough reminiscent of World War I or World War II, the conflict may ultimately resemble Afghanistan more closely—a prolonged struggle in which military realities gradually shape a political settlement. In the best case scenario, Russia leaves some Ukrainian territory to deal with a crisis at home.
More likely, Russia would agree to stop attacking Ukraine and retain only the territory it currently controls, while Ukraine would continue to regard those areas as legally Ukrainian territory. That may be the most realistic path to ending the fighting, even if it falls short of what either side originally sought.
I don't see any type of collapse with in 6 months.