Article in the National Security Journal:
U.S. President Donald J. Trump has found himself in a mess, or perhaps it is better to say he has created one for himself. America and Iran continue to maintain a shaky ceasefire, characterized by a double blockade and punctuated by occasional airstrikes and missile exchanges. The United States is substantially short of the status quo ante, the position that it enjoyed before the war began. Worse, there is no clear way out of the conflict.....
The President has no good options. The Iran War is a whirlwind of executive incompetence, embarked upon for no good reason, conducted with no clear strategy, and drawing to no visible endgame. It is difficult at this point to see how an accord will leave the US in a better position than when it started, beyond the unlikely possibility of a sudden collapse of the Islamic Republic. That said, the President’s precarious domestic situation offers an opening for some kind of war termination, if not on terms that the United States would prefer.
A basic deal would involve easing both the US and Iranian blockades in stages. Iran may insist upon a greater degree of control over the Strait than it enjoyed before the war, although any charges will be described as “fees” rather than “tolls.”
There will be no meaningful controls over Iran’s ballistic missile or drone programs, or a relaxation of its support for militias in Iraq and Yemen. The nuclear program remains the toughest place to find a face-saving compromise for both sides, but as we draw closer to the November midterms, the nature of that compromise is likely to increasingly favor Iran.