Both RCP and Silver Bulletin continue to show essentially the same averages for the President's approval since April. At this point, it appears we've reached a floor unless a significant new event changes the political environment.
Kalshi currently has the odds of Democrats winning control of the Senate at 43% versus 57% for Republicans. What's interesting is that recent Kalshi "who wins the senate," movement has generally favored Republicans overall, even though, from what I recall, Democrats have gained ground on Kalshi in several key Senate races, including Alaska, Iowa, Ohio, North Carolina, and Texas. Maine appears to be the primary state where Democrats have lost ground.
The Cook Political Report's ratings seem somewhat disconnected from current conditions.
For example, Cook rates Michigan as a Toss Up. In my view, it should be rated Likely Democratic. Republicans certainly have a path to victory there, but I would estimate the race closer to 70-30 in favor of Democrats.
Similarly, there is an argument that both Georgia and North Carolina should be classified as Likely Democratic rather than Lean Democratic.
On the Republican side, Cook rates Alaska as Lean Republican. By recent polling/state history it they should be treated like Ohio which is a toss up in Cook's perspective.