In Reply to: Will Iran start selling "protection" like the mob? posted by mh on June 23, 2026 at 09:32:53
Probably for a while.
I do think a regional coalition will eventually move to push Iran's influence back. It's hard to imagine Saudi Arabia accepting a situation where Iran has that much leverage over the Saudi economy indefinitely.
The Gulf states are already investing heavily in air and missile defense, and there is growing interest in technologies pioneered in Ukraine's drone war. Ukraine is even working on lower-cost alternatives to systems like the Patriot. As defensive capabilities improve, the balance of power could shift.
Saudi Arabia has a strong incentive to ensure freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz. Roughly 70–80% of Saudi oil exports typically move through the strait, making it one of the most critical economic lifelines for the kingdom. Long term, it's difficult to see the Saudis tolerating a permanent threat to that route.
It will take a few years imo.