Ukrainian kill ratios have reportedly gone from roughly 1:3 to 1:8, largely because drones have replaced soldiers in many of the most dangerous missions, such as scouting, holding crossroads, assaulting buildings, carrying supplies, evacuating the wounded, and similar tasks. Russia has more front line drones but fewer midrange and bomber drones. At this point Ukraine is sending double the mid/long range drones to Russia than Russia can fire back.
Rubio confirmed to Congress that Russia now has more soldiers killed than wounded. Because Russia is increasingly sending soldiers in ones and twos to infiltrate Ukrainian lines—and many are in their 40s and 50s—once they are wounded, there is often no one available to drag them back.
About 42% of Russia's oil refining capacity has reportedly been taken offline.
Russia has become better at defending against mid-range drone strikes (roughly 30 to 120 miles from the front) using Starlink jammers and mobile anti-drone teams with guns mounted on pickup trucks. Ukraine has adjusted by flooding the area with even more drones.
Fuel is now being rationed across Russia, including in Moscow, with long lines at gas stations that sometimes exceed 24 hours.
What does logistics look like in Ukraine? A train delivers supplies to a truck. A truck delivers them to an unmanned ground drone. The ground drone delivers them to an aerial drone. In the end, much of front-line logistics still comes down to a soldier pushing a wheelbarrow for miles, waiting to sprint to a tree line at the sound of a drone.
After damaging Russian refineries and air defenses, Ukraine is now shifting its focus toward chip factories, satellite communications, electrical substations, and munitions component/tooling factories.
Expect Russia to mobilize again in the fall. Its army is getting smaller each month. Ukrainian soldiers on the front may not feel it yet, but the available data suggest the trend is real.
Ukraine's new defense secretary has completely revamped the military. Recent reforms include allowing soldiers to return to civilian life under certain conditions, increasing pay based on exposure to danger, and creating a limited grace period during which deserters can return by joining the unit of their choice. The military is also tracking officers who have unusually high numbers of transfer requests from subordinates.
One particularly innovative reform is allowing any soldier who develops a valuable improvement to a drone, weapon, or other military technology to retain a share of the intellectual property and receive a percentage of any resulting profits.
Ukraine has also corrected a number of costly mistakes that previously resulted in unnecessary casualties, including cross-border attacks into Russia, attempting offensive operations based on NATO tank doctrine in unsuitable conditions, and holding doomed cities for too long.
Ukraine will eventually lose its first city in the famous fortress-city belt. When that happens—whether in months or a year—you can expect widespread panic in Western media. Today, however, Ukraine's kill ratio is generally much higher in open terrain than in urban combat. There is an ongoing debate over whether Ukraine should simply abandon Kostiantynivka and defend the more favorable open ground beyond the city.
Putin is now blaming Trump for allegedly going against the Alaska Accords.