While Ukraine does not have the size of army needed to push Russia completely out of occupied territory, more of the world is beginning to view Ukraine as gaining momentum. One sign of that is that President Trump has reportedly expressed support for allowing Ukraine to license the production of Patriot missiles. Whether that ultimately happens remains to be seen.
Over the past 48 hours, Ukraine says it mapped much of Russia's artillery network and launched around 800 drones against approximately 230 artillery pieces. Many of the reported targets were older Soviet-era howitzers that Russia has increasingly relied upon. According to Ukrainian reports, specialized thermal drones were used to damage or destroy artillery barrels, which are difficult and time-consuming to replace.
Ukraine has also continued to target Russian aircraft. At least seven aircraft were reportedly damaged or destroyed after drones penetrated hardened aircraft shelters. In the air, Ukraine has reportedly developed tactics that use F-16s to lure Russian fighters into pursuing them before engaging them with concealed Patriot air-defense batteries once the Russian aircraft are in a less favorable position.
Perhaps the biggest recent development has been Ukraine's campaign against Russian shipping in the Sea of Azov. Ukrainian officials say that roughly 115 Russian vessels have been hit over the past eight days. Most of these ships were damaged or disabled rather than sunk, but the sustained attacks have reportedly disrupted Russia's ability to move supplies to Crimea. Public satellite imagery has shown parts of the Sea of Azov nearly devoid of commercial traffic, although additional strikes reportedly continued overnight hitting 12 ships. With Crimea's rail and road supply routes increasingly under pressure, maritime logistics have become much more important for Russia.
Meanwhile, fuel prices inside Russia have risen sharply in some regions. Reports indicate gasoline has sold for as much as $25 per gallon in certain areas. Given that the average Russian income is significantly lower than that of the average American, some analysts estimate the economic burden is roughly comparable to an American paying $65 to $70 per gallon.