In Reply to: Are you saying an outsider will win the nomination? posted by DSCBruin on August 29, 2026 at 14:03:17
for whatever reason, and (b) if Democrats manage to beat back their perpetual instincts to put up an even more of an insider, establishment the candidate, and (c) if we have fair elections, I don't see a Republican can win 2028.
Now:
(a) is very likely to happen. Almost guaranteed. Except that there is an outside chance that Trump's hold on MAGA collapses quickly for any number of reasons, which would give Tucker Carlson a chance to run with the MAGA base and consolidate his control by early 2028, in which case they will have beaten this condition.
(b) is almost predestined because that's what Democrats do. It's their instinct. Between Third Way and AIPAC, they are very likely to completely veer into this direction. At this point of the game I see two spots of hope: AOC manages to rehabilitate her image with mainstream Democrats just enough to counter-balance AIPAC, or Osoff sticks to his guns outside of minor concessions (condemn the pinata boy Hasan Piker or something) and can hold on to the goodwill he already has from progressives. It would be very hard for AIPAC to accuse Osoff of being antisemitic. On the plus side, he physically has a White European presentation, so he may manage to get relatively softer landing with the disaffected right by which I mean not support, but less out and out racism).
As for (c), that one's anyone's guess by now.
That's how it all appears to me as of late August 2026.