In Reply to: I'm no math expert, but pretty sure our 3 turnovers to their 2 posted by Rubik543 on October 18, 2025 at 22:47:14
Maryland was, and still is (albeit by a somewhat lesser margin after UCLA came within 1 turnover of playing-off-even the #1 such team in Div 1), ranked #1 in Net Turnover Margin. We were a dismal #71 in Net Turnover Margin coming into last night's game.
By interpolation and given Maryland's beyond-huge superiority over UCLA in ranked Net Turnover Margin going into last night's game, the Terp's +1 in turnover margin last night over UCLA was below expectations, in UCLA's favor. Let me extrapolate, this way:
If you had made a prop bet with the Vegas betting books, as to the two teams' expected comparative net turnover margin in last night's game, there is no way in Hades that you would have received breakeven odds for UCLA to come within 1 turnover of the #1 turnover team in the land. IOW, Skipper would have taken a -1 in net turnover margin in a New York Minute, given UCLA's edge in other key variables, like playing at home and having an infinitely tougher strength of schedule of #14 in the nation vs MD's pansy #101 such rating.
Arguably the biggest factor in the consensus view of what Indiana would need to do to win the game, would be the same plus marker for MD all season, namely, winning the net turnover margin bigly as the leading such team in Div 1. Again, by more than their slender +1 TO margin edge that UCLA held them to.
I should have phrased it more clearly, but my conviction was UCLA beat Maryland AT IT'S OWN turnover game, by holding them to a below-expectations +1, which shot a hole in their potential winning of last night's game.