The line opened at UCLA -6.5 (DraftKings), dropped to -5.5, now at -4.5 (line was at -5.5 when this went to press. see below). Over/under now at 38.5 with 62% of bets currently on the over. Using 38.5 pts, we're 3-5 Over/Under this season but...2 of our totals were at 38.
Bill Connelly, ESPN: No. 8 UCLA at Minnesota (noon, Fox). Minnesota either drastically exceeds or drastically underachieves against projections every week. The Gophers could make this another hellacious rock fight, but with a good run game and run defense and an outstanding pass defense, that suits UCLA just fine. Despite their newness to the league, the Bruins might be the most Big Ten Big Ten team this year.
Current line: UCLA -5.5 | SP+ projection: UCLA by 11.0 | FPI projection: UCLA by 6.4.
Connelly also said this about UCLA earlier this week:
Fatal flaw: The forward pass. UCLA's offense ranks 115th in passing success rate and 78th in yards per dropback. Since Ty Dieffenbach took over at QB for the injured Nico Iamaleava, those rankings are 106th and 77th, respectively. Thanks to an excellent run game led by Wayne Knight and Anthony Woods, the Bruins stay on schedule beautifully, but on third-and-7 or more, they're just 3-for-17 in Dieffenbach's starts. Their strengths (run game, elite defense) are so strong that such a glaring weakness hasn't yet been punished. How much do you trust that to continue in the CFP?