In Reply to: Not true. posted by mh on June 05, 2026 at 19:30:49
There are circumstances that you need where prediction markets are better. It would be incorrect to make a blanket statement that polls are always better. Part of having a complete picture is looking at both polls, betting markets and historical patterns.
Dems better hope Kalshi is better because the poll results are much less optimistic than the betting markets on winning the senate.
> The only real measure would be to compare approval rating in the past with the present.
That's not true.
The issue that can't be predicted on the midterm is turn out. It's why Kalshi is more optimistic for Dems than the polls are.
At this point with record low approval, no one knows who will actually show up to the polls especially with rural whites, non-college educated men, black men, Hispanics in general and more specifically Cubans.