In Reply to: Speaking of Musk and Friends ...Many ways to lose money posted by mh on July 27, 2026 at 10:06:48
Over the past week, attention has focused on whether President Trump will escalate military operations against Iran and its partners.
That is an important question.
It is not the most important one. In thirty years studying wars and advising leaders around the world, I have learned something important: Understand what just happened, not just what might happen.
The more consequential development is what happened in the Red Sea. There Iran has fundamentally changed the military problem confronting the United States – and the economic consequences confronting the world.
For decades, American strategy in the Gulf rested on a straightforward assumption: if Iran threatened the Strait of Hormuz, alternative export routes and superior U.S. military power would prevent a prolonged disruption of global energy flows.
That assumption is now collapsing.
The reason is no longer simply Hormuz. The escape route itself is coming under sustained attack.
After Houthi attacks on Saudi oil tankers, over 40% of Saudi oil bypassing Hormuz via the Red Sea is not hitting the global market. More attacks could reduce this further. By opening an active Red Sea front through its regional partners while keeping Hormuz closed, Iran no longer presenting Washington with one maritime challenge.
It is creating a two-front war problem in strategically linked theaters that must be managed at the same time.