In Reply to: Re: You soccer guys call this an 'own goal', right? posted by russsmith on September 16, 2026 at 13:29:25
It looks like the rate change was already priced in. Kalshi is now pricing an even higher probability of a 25-basis-point hike at the September meeting, with the market recently around 87%.
What I find interesting is that, listening to a bond analyst, the common expectation was that there would be a 25-basis-point move about a month before the election and another one afterward. That seemed crazy to me given the potential impact of rate changes on the market.
Doing a "surprise" rate change today makes sense from a timing perspective because it gives the market the longest possible time to absorb it and recover before the election. With another 25-basis-point move already being priced in for December, however, I don't expect the market to move much unless something significant changes—such as the Strait of Hormuz reopening and causing a meaningful shift in oil prices and inflation expectations. Kalshi's current pricing does show another hike being considered for December.