Since The Argument and Split Ticket released our 2026 midterms model, I keep being asked the same question: “Isn’t that awfully optimistic for Democrats?”
I get it. After all, the legacy, nonpartisan election analysts at Inside Elections and Cook Political Report don’t agree with us. Inside Elections has Democrats projected to only pick up between two and 10 seats total. Their analysis has Democrats ahead in just 207 seats, while Republicans are favored in 212, with the rest considered toss-ups. And if you look at The Cook Political Report, you’ll also see Democrats trailing Republicans in the net count of seats for the House, 206 to 208.
Meanwhile, our model gives just 11% odds of a Republican majority.
In fact, our median scenario is that Democrats take 232 House races, for a net gain of 18 seats and a relatively comfortable 29-seat majority. We’re not the only ones — Nate Silver’s model actually has Democrats winning 234 seats, which is even more bullish than ours.
Cook and Inside Elections do leave many more races as toss-ups than we do. But that isn’t necessarily what’s driving their relative pessimism on Democrats’ gains. Even if Inside Elections gave every single toss-up race to the Democrats, it would still produce a forecast with nine more Republican seats than our model is currently projecting.
In other words, modelers see a blue wave election. The expert forecasts suggest more of a ripple. Come November, somebody is going to be very wrong. And I don’t think it will be me.