In Reply to: I lover the smell of 3-0 on a Monay morning* posted by mh on September 21, 2026 at 12:52:12
Take a few weekends off for vacation and the odds completely flip.
Kalshi has Dems 60% GOP 40% when it had been flipped for months Dems 45% GOP 55%.
Silver has Dems 51 senate seats to GOP 49 with a 57% change of Dems winning the senate. We started this at 1/3 chance of flipping the Senate.
Texas is now a lean blue for the senate.
Silver Bulletins 2026 forecast
US Senate
🟦Democrats: 51
🟥Republicans: 49
(57% chance of Democrats winning)
US House
🟦Democrats: 233
🟥Republicans: 202
(87% chance of Democrats winning)
US Senate races
Senate ratings
⬜️Ohio: Toss-Up
⬜️Iowa: Toss-Up
⬜️Alaska: Toss-Up
🟦Texas: Lean D
🟦Maine: Lean D
🟦Michigan: Lean D
🟦North Carolina: Likely D
🟦Georgia: Likely D