In Reply to: Poland suggests Trump lying about russian oil posted by russsmith on October 10, 2026 at 11:01:56
I suspect Russia will send a relatively small amount of diesel to the U.S. in exchange for giving Trump the opportunity to announce a deal.
In return, Russia could benefit from some relief from oil sanctions, while the deal would give other countries political cover to resume buying Russian oil at full market prices. From Russia’s perspective, the potential economic benefits would make this deal worthwhile.
By the way, Moscow is not experiencing permanent fuel rationing. Ukraine simply doesn’t have enough missiles to keep Russia’s refineries out of operation indefinitely. My expectation is that Russia will experience periodic shortages and rationing lasting a few days every several weeks, rather than a continuous crisis. I’ve seen charts tracking fuel rationing in major Russian cities, and the pattern appears to be intermittent: restrictions come and go as conditions change.
Trump made a similar kind of lopsided deal with China. China gets access to powerful NVIDIA AI chips, while Trump gets to announce an AI safety forum between the two countries.
The pattern is striking: he appears willing to trade substantive concessions for diplomatic announcements that generate positive headlines. China gains something tangible in return for an agreement to talk about AI safety.