Trump's attacks on Iran have produced a bumper crop of bitter fruit in the Gulf Region. Just another fine mess that Donnie's gotten us into. Ya think he'll get another peace prize for this?
"Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates once sought to be anchors of stability in the Middle East. But today they face grave threats. Iran is still striking shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, while the Houthis in Yemen have been firing missiles at Saudi airports and the Bab al-Mandab strait, another vital waterway. And America, once the Gulf states’ most dependable ally, is wary about being sucked into forever wars in the region, leaving both countries dangerously exposed.
In the face of such dangers, you might think that the Gulf’s two richest states would be focused on improving their security and forging new alliances. Instead they are tuss¬ling for influence and recklessly inflaming conflicts in the Middle East and the Horn of Africa.
In Yemen rather than uniting against the Houthis, their common enemy, the Saudis and Emiratis support rival factions. Civil war rages in Sudan, where the Emiratis support the Rapid Support Forces, a genocidal militia (though they deny it) and the Saudis back the slightly less brutal regular army. Meanwhile, both are vying for influence over the ports on the Red Sea, where their competing alliances could further aggravate tensions between Ethiopia and Eritrea, on the brink of yet another war. Although neither the Emiratis nor the Saudis started any of these complex conflicts, and are not the only interfering outside powers, they are making them bloodier and harder to end.
This week on The Insider we’ll unpack the power struggle between the two Gulf countries that threatens to wreck the region. I’ll be joined by Robert Guest, my fellow deputy editor, as well as Josie Delap, our Middle East editor, and Lena Schipper, our Africa editor. Gregg Carlstrom, our Middle East correspondent, will dial in from Riyadh.
First we’ll get our bearings, by looking briefly at the arc of conflict and instability around the Red Sea. The wars in Sudan and Yemen have killed hundreds of thousands of people and displaced almost 20m. The tempestuous relations between Ethiopia and Eritrea could be about to flare up.
Then I’ll seek to pinpoint what is causing the competition between the two leaders. Saudi Arabia and the UAE have not always been at loggerheads. Muhammad bin Salman, the Saudi crown prince, known as MBS, once looked to Muhammad Bin Zayed (MBZ) as a mentor. I’ll ask Gregg to explain what went wrong. Both countries seek to be regional hubs for finance, trade and travel, and big in AI and alternative energy. The pair also diverge on ideology: MBZ is hostile to Islamists. But personal animosity appears to play a part, too. How much of their meddling abroad is a result of petty rivalries?
Finally we’ll consider what this means for the future. The foreign adventurism of the Saudis and the Emiratis has a vast human cost. But the conflicts threaten their own interests, too: chaos around the Red Sea imperils trade routes, and it is hard to see how the collapse of the gigantic African state in their backyard makes them more secure. Saudi Arabia and the UAE ought to change tack. But how? And will the signs that America wants to limit its commitment to the Middle East bring them together, or drive them further apart? We want to hear what you think, so vote in our poll below."