In Reply to: We shouldn't take Idaho State lightly. posted by mh on November 18, 2024 at 11:37:10
by an average of 13 points.
They were projected to lose to Arizona State by 19 and lost by only 7. To our rivals by 21 and lost by 6. And Steve Lavin's San Diego Toreros were favored to win by 1 but lost to Idaho State by 12 (is anyone really surprised?).
It seems like someone could make some good money betting on ISU and taking the points, assuming UCLA is favored by around 20 as projected by kenpom.com.
OTOH
Idaho State is ranked #291 in offensive efficiency at 98.7 (compared to the #57 Bruins 111.4).
The Bengals shoot 45% on 2-pointers, 24% on 3-pointers, although they are making 74% of their free throws. They are a decent offensive rebounding team at 34.8% (#78) but they're very careless with the ball, making non-steal turnovers at a 10% clip (#296), and they've managed to get their shots blocked 15% of the time (#334).
There's no way to sugarcoat it; their offense stinks!
So, they must be playing some really good defense, right?
Not really. Maybe? Their defensive efficiency is only 104.5 (#165). But they are "holding" opponents shooting 48% from two (#127) and 24% from three (#16) [NICE!]. They give up only 23.2% of missed shots to offensive rebounds (#41), which is better than UCLA, but on the other side of that coin, they give up a lot of fouls. They get a good number of blocks, 14% (#48), mostly from 6-11 235 freshman Evan Otten, but they never steal the ball, only 5% (#341).
So, Idaho State has some respectable defensive numbers but not great, and not good enough to offset their horid offense.
Whatever happened in their previous games, the numbers suggest it's not sustainable. And tonight's game against Fullerton seems to prove that.
On second thought, if I was a betting man, I wouldn't lay too much on Idaho State against UCLA, no matter what the spread is.