In Reply to: Today and tomorrow: Games that could help us. posted by mh on February 07, 2025 at 12:59:31
I hate to keep harping on this, but the only really important thing that determines our seed is if we win our games, not what all the other teams in the nation do. Somebody drops down and someone else moves up to take their place. There are so many permutations of the final bracket, one game for other teams could help or hurt our chances. What if a very good team loses some tough games and moves down so we have to play them in an early round? Even having a lower seed could help us if the potential matchup is better. Playing closer to home might only matter if the games are in California. Otherwise, it might mean just an extra hour or two on a plane ride and a few less of our fans and a few more of theirs. Teams playing close to home usually win because they are the highest seeds, not because of a "home court advantage".
Now take 2023 for example. We got to play in the West region and played in Sacramento and Las Vegas. But the West regional had possibly the only two teams in the nations that could beat us, Gonzaga and UConn. The other teams that won their regionals? Miami, San Diego St and Fla Atlantic. So wishing to play in the West wasn't the best route to the Final Four.
The games outside the conference really have no certainty of helping or hurting us. Watch them if you like, but be careful what you wish for.