In Reply to: Maybe I'm missing something, but posted by ej on June 24, 2025 at 11:22:44
#18 by on barttorvik.com.
The 2024/25 team had to incorporate 4 new starters, yet it competed for the B1G championship into the last month of the season.
They averaged 74.2 points a game and had an efficiency margin of +23.46 points per 100 possessions, which equates to +15.25 points per game given UCLA's average of 65 possessions.
Last year's #10 team on kenpom.com was Maryland, with an efficiency margin of +27.07. The difference between the Terrapins and the Bruins was 3.61 points per 100 possessions, or just 2.35 points per game.
With seven departing players; Andrews (6.9), Harris (1.1), Johnson (7.9), Kyle (2.9), Mack (9.6), Mara (6.4), and Stefanovic (4.7), UCLA is losing 39.5 points per game.
But in adding Booker (4.7), Brown (17.0) Dent (20.4), Jamerson II (10.0), and the returning redshirt B. Williams (3.1), the Bruins are adding 55.2 points per game.
Obviously, the new players aren't all going to score at last year's rates.
Dent clearly benefited from New Mexico's fast pace and being the focal point of their offense, but he will also have a lot more scoring options available to him at the point.
Brown is unlikely to score as easily in the B1G as he did in the Summit League, but he's still a proven shooter, and that should translate, unless he turns out to be another Harris.
Booker is an enigma. Can he reach the potential he showed in high school, or has he already hit his ceiling? I have no idea, but last year's 4.7 points is less than a bucket off of Mara's 6.4 (though, to be clear, I'd rather have Mara).
Jamerson II couild be a surprise. He played in a tough mid-major conference, and averaged 9.7 points and 7.3 boards against top-100 competition.
UCLA just needs to find 3 extra points a game, and they could be a top-10 team based on last year's numbers. It's not a lock but it's not as far-fetched as you think.