In Reply to: I can’t see that there is any mathematical advantage posted by UCLABB on November 17, 2024 at 18:13:55
I think this really applies to basically evenly matched teams in any game, but especially a big game.
First, I think players naturally have nerves and adrenaline going prior to the start of a game. As a coach, I would not be surprised if my QB is not settled to start the game. I think you have a big advantage receiving in the second half. Your whole offense theoretically should by settled by then.
Second and most important IMO, I think you have to measure any stats by yardage. I don't know the numbers, but I would have to assume statistically teams gain more yards on the first series of downs in the second half then the first. Again, comes down to evenly matched teams, but if the difference is say 5 yards more in second half, that is still a field position difference. That can also equate to things like the difference of punting or kicking a FG or the difference of kicking a 45 yard FG or a 50 yard FG. Obviously statistically the 45 yarder should be a better bet.
Finally, psychologically speaking, I think you gain an advantage even if being down at the half, but getting some momentum and then starting with the ball in the second.