In Reply to: I can’t see that there is any mathematical advantage posted by UCLABB on November 17, 2024 at 18:13:55
I would say there was a slight advantage to receiving in the second half. Team A is first half receiving, Team B is second half receiving.
1ST HALF/2ND HALF RECEIVING TEAMS WASH
2 games resulted in both punts and each team gained similar yards
1 game resulted in both team gaining 42-44 with a missed FG in 1st half and made FG in 2nd half. I would call that a WASH because they had the same opportunity
1ST HALF RECEIVING TEAM ADVANTAGE
2 games had team A and punted but gained minimum 9 more yards on possession compared to team B receiving then punting
2 games had team A score TDs, team B punt
1 game had team A punt after 7 yards gained and Team B -11 yards as a fumble
1 game team A went 70 yards and TD, team B went 61 yards and FG (better end result, but team B did move the ball far)
2ND HALF RECEIVING
1 game team A fumbled after 1 play and team B got a FG
1 game team A went 19 yards and turnover on downs, team B 28 yards and punt. Win on field position
1 game team A went 11 yards and punt, team B went 70 yards and TD
1 game team A wen 29 yards and FG, team B went 80 yards and TD
Just off those results for this weekend, I'd say the team receiving had a slight advantage over yards gained for field position and the teams receiving in the second half had a slight advantage over points scored. It would come down to how heavy you weigh each result.
One example is Cleveland turned the ball over on downs and NO scored a TD on the following possession. Personally, I would weigh that pretty heavy. When NO received in the second half, they went 28 yards and punted, so they would also get a field position advantage between the two results.
I still think I would defer to the 2nd half 9 out of 10 times.