In Reply to: Re: going for 2 there doesn't make any sense to me posted by Dr.Bruin on December 08, 2024 at 01:57:59
Assume you have a 40% chance of making a two, 95% chance of making a kick and 50% chance of winning in OT.
Possible winning outcomes:
Make the two (40%), make the one (95%) probability: 38%
Miss the two (60%), make the two (40%) win in OT (50%) probability: 12%
Make the two (40%), miss the one (5%) win in OT (50%) probability: 1%
Probability of winning: 51%
Possible losing outcomes:
Make the two (40%), miss the one (5%) lose in OT (50%) probability: 1%
Miss the two (60%), make the two (40%) lose in OT (50%) probability: 12%
Miss the two (60%), miss the two (60%) probability: 36%
Probability of losing: 49%
You can try this with different numbers to see the probability of winning.