In Reply to: Here's the math posted by Dr.Bruin on December 08, 2024 at 11:25:40
From a Penn St Board (they didn't link source data tho):
“According to recent data, the success rate for a 2-point conversion in college football in 2024 is around 32.4%.”
and:
"Penn State's 2 point conversion rate for the season is 0% (0-2). "
I do think that a) the decision was stupid, and b) analytics aren't as tied into the 2 teams actually playing on the field and the situation yet (in this case, I do think that the way the offenses were dominating that game, the probability of success was greater than if, say, Penn St had tried a 2-pt conversion in the low scoring home games v. Ohio St and Illinois) - but also given that Oregon was playing only 2 down linemen against the run, the call should have been some sort of run if you're going to go for it.
Regardless, it made zero difference, except to bettors who were on the cusp