JMU beats WSU 24-20. This showed Chesney's record wasn't just inflated by beating mediocre teams. WSU has played several good teams close (but has now lost four games by 4 points or less).
However, one needs three seasons at a job to properly evaluate a coach. The two most common reasons a coach gets hired is because the previous coach got fired or the previous coach does such a good job he's hired by a bigger program. In the former case, give him three years to recruit and build up a program. In the latter case, there is always a carryover from the previous success in the new coach's first season or two. Even though Cignetti took several players with him, there were still many left who Cignetti coached and recruited as well as a winning tradition.
There are two great examples of this in two UCLA sports. Mike Sealy replaced legendary Women's Volleyball coach Andy Banachowski. He quickly won a national championship but in the next 11 years never came close again, making one Elite Eight. Margueritte Aosoza took over Women's Soccer from highly successful Amanda Cromwell and won a national championship her first season. The next three years they lost in the first or second round.
Winning a lot of games at a very low level is no guarantee of success at a high level. The best example of this is a coach who was 178-23 at his prior school, got hired by a big time major program, but was a complete flop. Can you name him?