Too big inventories plus tariffs = crashing bourbon trade
Sarwat said in November that Bernstein estimates “excess supply in four to five years’ time” and predicted companies would mitigate a potential “hard landing” by encouraging further growth outside the U.S. “Today about a third of U.S. whiskey volumes are sold outside the U.S. … Penetration is incredibly low,” compared to Scotch and other categories, she said. “You have room for growth.”
Great! Just sell bourbon overseas!
But ooopsie! So suppliers have more inventory than they need and reciprocal tariffs from countries Kentucky exports to is gonna put a hit on demand. Poor Kentucky but they voted for this clown. At least bourbon will be cheaper during Trumptastrophe, part deux.
The possibility of impending tariffs could make overseas growth difficult. Chris Swonger, president and CEO of the Distilled Spirits Council of the U.S., said in November, after the re-election of President-election Donald Trump, that retaliatory tariffs from trade disputes during Trump’s first term crashed the industry — and they could again.