In Reply to: Only thing for sure is no one knows what the market posted by HasBen on July 15, 2025 at 08:42:59
Virtually all gambling is a negative EV game, because the house takes a cut. It can be as low as around 1.06% for a game like Baccarat or as high as 50% for a lottery.
There is a tiny negative effect in the stock market for slippage, but basically the market would be a zero-sum game if the game ended. However, it doesn't. Over the long run, more money enters the market than leaves it, meaning it is profitable over the long run.
Of course, there is no way of knowing how long "the long run' is. If you had invested at exactly the wrong moment in the 1930's, you would have had to wait 25 years to get your money back.
The stock market can be risky, but it is not the same as betting at the track, where the house cut can be as high as 30%.
FWIW, there are skilled gamblers and skilled stock investors who make huge profits. The Warren Buffet of horse racing is Bill Benter who made close to $1 billion using computers to analyze horse racing.