In Reply to: Keep your money where rich people keep their money... posted by confused442 on March 17, 2026 at 17:00:17
If we use Cook's Political Report as the gold standard of political prognostication via polls...
Likely is considered win decided by up to 18 points.
Lean is considered a win decided by up to 10 points
I'll put the the Kalshi odds Dems vs GOP next to each state
Likely Dem
MN 7 to 1
Lean Dem
NH 6 to 1
Toss Up
GA 4 to 1
ME 2.3 to 1 gop
MI 3 to 1
NC 4 to 1 gop
Lean R
AK toss up gop
OH toss up gop
Likely R
IA 2 to 3 gop
TX 2 to 3 gop
Dems need to flip 4 seats to take the senate.
Kalshi has the odds of them taking the senate as 51% (not looking state by state)
The expected number of contested states won by Dems is 6.58. Dems need 7 or more states to win. The probability of that happening is 50+%.
These betting markets combined with chatgpt is a powerful tool.