In Reply to: Last night was a great night at the polls. posted by mh on April 08, 2026 at 11:33:15
Donald Trump’s approval rating has generally held steady in the 38%–40% range, with the exception of a recent outlier poll from the University of Massachusetts Amherst Polling Center that showed him at 33% early last week.
Ahead of his Iran-related speech on Friday, prediction markets on Kalshi briefly priced in a sharp drop in approval—from around 40% to roughly 30%. That implied a significant backlash, suggesting that as many as one in four of his current supporters might turn against him following the speech.
However, that shift proved temporary. In the days since, Kalshi markets have moved back, placing his approval at approximately 41%, in line with the broader polling trend.
At the same time, despite recent Democratic gains, Kalshi’s odds for control of the Senate have remained largely unchanged, continuing to reflect a near coin toss.
Overall, betting markets indicate little lasting impact from recent events: Trump’s approval remains around 40%, and the outlook for Senate control is still highly competitive.
There’s a lot of short-term noise in the data, but the sharp money doesn’t see a clear signal yet.