Your math assumes independent events.


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Posted by mh on September 02, 2026 at 15:44:01

In Reply to: Re: If the current polls are spot on. Dems would win posted by confused442 on September 02, 2026 at 15:15:45

Given that voting is partly local and partly responsive to national events and trends, that is a poor assumption. There is a definite correlation.

Just look at the last three Presidential elections where the swing state broke the same way each time.


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