In Reply to: If the current polls are spot on. Dems would win posted by Bruinfan4ever on September 02, 2026 at 13:13:45
That's not how probability works.
If you have a 60% chance of winning two independent states, the probability of winning both is 0.60 × 0.60 = 0.36, or 36%.
The issue for Democrats is that they need to flip four Republican-held Senate seats to gain control of the Senate. If you apply the multiplication rule for probability as I explained, you're looking at roughly a 40%–45% chance of Democrats actually gaining control of the Senate—and that's before even considering the much less likely scenario of a clean sweep.
For your prediction to be correct—and it certainly may be—you have to assume that the current polling does not accurately reflects who will actually turn out to vote. That's where the models have been wrong in the past, particularly when Trump is on the ballot.